Cards & Stats

So here is a fun follow-up to the last post. That one introduced “eFIP,” a pitcher estimator that uses empirically derived weights for fielding-independent outcomes—strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed,...

I’m circling back to formulating a pitcher estimator. I explored that back when I examined ball-in-play propensities. but I feel I didn’t get a very good handle on then. So forget how BIP enters into the...

I’m returning to pitcher estimators, and in reviewing FanGraphs’ WAR calculation discovered a truly cringeworthy glitch. FanGraphs uses a variant of FIP—fielding independent pitching—to determine the pitching...

Great news: mWAR paper has been accepted by Journal of Sport Analytics!     Will make second site paper (other being Fielding After Baseball’s Great Transformation) to be published. There have been others...

Been a while—but here’s a new paper! Synthesizes and extends some of the material from the last few posts on using Pythagorean Expectation formula as benchmark for identifying elements of team composition...

Here’s a strange one: does team slugging percentage predict deviation from a team’s Pythagorean Expectation Formula (PEF() winning percentage? There’s absolutely zero reason to believe it would in theory. PEF,...