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The simulation routine used to predict Super Rookies vs. ’27 Yankees series is going to have to evolve if it has a future. But why not at least give the BBC&S-imulator 9000 a chance at some real-world predictions first?
Using the same model and Monte Carlo simulation algorithm as before, I took a shot at predicting/handicapping the LCS’s. The matchups aren’t nearly as close the Rookie-Yanks series was predicted to be.
Start with the NL. The respective WAR-per-games of the Dodgers and Mets are 0.286 and 0.219, respectively. The model rates that a 57% heads-up, single-game advantage for the Dodgers.
Poor Gil is caught on the middle on this one …
Naturally that translates into an even bigger edge in a seven-game series. The Dodgers won...
There have been 36 .400 hitters in MLB history. But there hasn’t been one in over 80 seasons. The last AL/NL player to reach this mark was Ted Williams, who batted .406 in 1941, and it seems plausible (not inevitable!) that no one will ever do it again.
The seeming extinction of the .400 hitter is associated with one of the most popular baseball-statistics parlor games: the construction of a season-for-season batting average exchange rate.
The motivation is the conviction that the disappearance of .400 hitters can’t be attributed entirely to the superior hitting acumen of the old timers. Game conditions have changed in myriad ways. So is there some defensible method for making the averages of the old timers and the hitters of the last eight...
Okay, after the last post, it had to be done: the all-time best collection of rookie performers ever versus the best team in MLB history—the 1927 Yankees!
Could these Super Rookies really compete? I built a Monte Carlo simulation to figure that out. But I’ll get to that in a minute.
First let’s take a look at the starting lineups, and see how the two squads match up!
On the mound for the Rookies—appropriately enough—is the 1910 Yankees’ Russ Ford. Ford compiled a 26-6 record that season with a 1.65 ERA—good enough for the all-time highest WAR for any rookie (11.4). We will treat him as inexhaustible, and let him pitch every game.
The ’27 Yankees aren’t going to be restricted to one pitcher in this series. But if they were it would be their...
There have been 150 ROY winners since the inception of the award in 1947. Nineteen of those players are in the Hall of Fame.
Does that seem low to you?
Let’s ignore the ROYs who aren’t yet HOF eligible–about 25 who are either still active or who retired before 2019. (Some of them are actually shoe-ins–like Mike Trout, Justin Verlander, Albert Pujols, and Ichiro Suzuki. There are also some, like Lou Whitaker and Dick Allen, who should be in already and likely will be inducted via an Era Committee vote someday.)
That’s about 15%.
About 1.5% (273 of 18,000) of the men who have appeared in an MLB game are members of the Hall of Fame.
So just winning Rookie of the Year means that one is 10x more likely than average...
So this is definitely the place to start. With these two enchanting cards.
They supply everything that this endeavor—a tiny little site; a wholly personal tribute to baseball, but glad you are here—is about.
Start with what could seem like the most prosaic element of these cards’ appeal: when turned over, they report the entire careers of these two baseball giants. Every season is there. All the times Clemente topped the .300 threshold. All the times Mickey belted, 30-, 40-, and 50-plus home runs.
Plus the totals. Five hundred and thirty-six home runs. Three thousand hits; 3,000 exactly. . . .
Having it all there really does make them special. That’s because baseball, more than any other team sport conveys the magnitude of its stars’ accomplishment...