This is pretty self-explanatory:
It’s well known that the pitching-mechanics revolution has made it possible for everyone and his grandmother to throw 100 MPH fastballs, and that this development is ripping pitchers’ arms to shreds.
Note too that according to Jon Roegele, Tommy John surgeries are under-reported. Whether the upward trend is understated too is hard to say; unless for some reason under-reporting is becoming increasingly common, then the rate at which the surgery is increasing probably isn’t more dramatic than what is reflected in Roegele’s count.
Is this trend sustainable? One wouldn’t think so. But MLB is stuck in an intractable “race to the bottom”—or race to the surgeon’s table. Obviously, this sort of carnage is imposing a substantial cost on the game as a whole. But no organization can “opt out” of the new premium on speed without suffering a huge competitive disadvantage.
Maybe a rule change is in order? Banning overhand pitching comes to mind.
Ironically, Tommy John himself never threw smoke. His fastball supposedly topped out at 85 MPH.
But he was effective. Figuring out how to measure what pitchers did to distinguish themselves in skill levels before super-high strikeout rates became the near-exclusive path to preeminence is something I’ve been pondering… Well, I’ll get back to you when I figure out something that seems worth reporting.