

	* mgr MLE observed values
	***************************************************************

	clear all
	set more off
	set seed 20250817

	* ---------- Paths ----------
	cd [your partition]
	local  MANAGER  [DF_1]
	local TEAMWARPG  [DF_2]
	
	* ---------- Load & prep (your original flow) ----------
	use "`MANAGER'", clear, clear

	gen byte w = result=="W"
	gen byte l = result=="L"

	rename team_runs     rs
	rename opponent_runs ra

	collapse (sum) w l rs ra, by(retroID name_last name_first yearID teamID)
	drop if missing(retroID) | retroID==""

	gen games = w + l


	gen mgrID = retroID
	
	

	* collapse duplicate manager-seasons (sum stints)
	collapse (sum) w l rs ra, by(mgrID yearID name_first name_last teamID)
	
	append using [DF_2a]
	
	
	gen games = w + l

	* merge team WARPG
	merge m:1 teamID yearID using "`TEAMWARPG'", nogen

	* winning percentage
	gen double wp = w / games

	* keep essentials
	keep mgrID name_first name_last yearID teamID w l games wp warpg
	order mgrID name_first name_last yearID teamID w l games wp warpg

	tempfile base
	save `base', replace




	* collapse duplicate manager-seasons (sum stints)


	* merge team WARPG
	merge m:1 teamID yearID using "`TEAMWARPG'", nogen


	drop if warpg==. | mgrID==""
*___________________________
* observed values
*___________________________
* -- lookup to map mgr_n -> mgrID (unique list) --
encode mgrID, gen(mgr_n) label(mgr_n)
preserve
keep mgrID mgr_n
duplicates drop
save mwar_mgr_key,replace
restore

bys mgrID:	egen tg=total(g)
drop if tg<14

 export [DF3], nolabel replace



glm w c.z_wpg i.mgr_n, family(binomial games) link(logit) vce(oim)

*set team stanadardized WAR to 0 for .500 team

replace z_wpg=0

* predict individual mgr wp on logit scale (xb)
predict xb

keep  xb  mgrID mgr_n
duplicates drop
save [db_4]replace
